Eco Biz Blog

Bespoke: Barron’s Roundtable head scratcher

2009-06-21T12:54:00.001+03:00

Last weekend's Barron's provided a mid-year update to its annual "Roundtable" report, and as the title of the article suggested, the consensus among panelists was that the market has come "too far, too fast." While that view is certainly not a minority opinion, we are confused with the logic behind it. As noted in the article,

"Many predicted at our Jan. 5 confab that the stock market, oversold and under-loved, was due for a major bounce. Now they think stock prices have overshot corporate fundamentals and a correction is in order."

So on January 5th, when the S&P 500 was at 927, the members of the Barron's Roundtable were looking for a major bounce. Now, with the S&P 500 up 2% since then, they think the market has come too far, too fast?

Source: Bespoke, June 15, 2009.

Two Great Video - Just for Laughs

2009-05-10T13:17:00.003+03:00

Zombie Banks - Musical op-ed piece written and performed by John Forster and Tom Chapin.

Bontrust: Increase In Currency (Money love)

The Worst Stock of the Decade

2009-04-23T11:26:00.002+03:00

Congratulations to Velocity Express (VEXP), the single-worst performing stock of the decade...that’s still trading.

Since the beginning of decade, VEXP has had three reverse stock splits; a 1-for-50, a 1-for-15 and a 1-for-5. That adds up to 1-for-3,750.

VEXP closed last century at $8 a share but adjusting for splits that comes to $30,000. Today, it’s at 21 cents. Ouch! That’s a loss of 99.9993%. Heck, it’s more than Ivory Soap.

Those -99.99…% figures can be a little deceiving so let me add some perspective. Velocity’s loss is the equivalent of dropping in half 17 times. It’s like a 10% loss every month for the decade. If would have turned $1 million into $7.

But it’s still trading

Source:
The Worst Stock of the Decade
By CrossingWallStreet
April 22, 2009 12:08 PM
http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2009/04/the_worst_stock.html

Ten & Five years of Sector Total Returns

2009-04-09T07:49:00.003+03:00

After a month where all but two sectors (Consumer Staples and Health Care) have had double-digit returns, a look at longer term sector returns shows that investors will need a lot more months like March before even being able to think about getting back to even. The first chart below shows total returns for the S&P 500 and each of its ten sectors over the last five years. As one might expect, Financials are by far the biggest losers. With a decline of 62%, the decline in that sector is over two times the decline of the next closest sector (Consumer Discretionary). On the upside, even after the collapse in energy prices and energy stocks, the sector is still up nearly 70% over the last five years.

Looking at a ten-year window, overall returns are even worse as the S&P 500 has lost a total of 22.6%. Over that period, three sectors (Financials, Telecom Services, and Technology) are down nearly 50%, while only four are up. Returns like these hardly reinforce the idea that stocks are the best asset class to build long-term wealth, although with a track record this poor, can it get much worse?

Source:
Sector Total Returns
By Bespoke Investment Group
April 06, 2009 at 01:11 PM
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/04/sector-total-returns.html

Once Again, We’re Sorry About Michele Bachmann

2009-03-25T13:39:00.003+02:00

In yesterday's installment, Michele Bachmann saves us from a sneaky Chinese and Russian plot to achieve world domination through a global currency, but reveals that she was not at school the day they studied this in sixth grade:

Risk Management Software

2009-03-22T10:40:00.003+02:00

Its funny ’cause you know it was true:

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

2009-03-08T18:00:00.001+02:00

If you haven’t seen this already, you HAVE to watch it - funniest thing ever. Jon Stewart takes on CNBC for its coverage during the market collapse; NYT's biz columnist Joe Nocera is his guest. What to conclude from the fact that everyone's cheering Jon Stewart's evisceration of CNBC's Santelli, but everyone hoorayed Santelli at the time? Love the message, hate the messenger...

The Daily Show With Jon StewartM - Th 11p / 10c

CNBC Gives Financial Advice

Daily Show Full Episodes
Important Things With Demetri Martin

Political Humor
Joke of the Day

March 6, 2009 43 Years Of No Real Gains

2009-03-07T19:03:00.002+02:00

Adjusting for inflation, the Dow is basically where it was in 1966.

This doesn't include dividends.

From February 9, 1966 to yesterday’s close, the Dow gained 562.7%. The CPI from February 1966 to January 2009 (we'll get February's report on March 18) rose 559.8%.

That works out to a real gain of 43 basis points stretched out over 43 years.

Posted by edelfenbein

Just One State

2009-03-07T12:26:00.003+02:00

This is only one State...............If this doesn't open your eyes nothing will!

From the L.A. Times
1. 40% Of all workers in L. A. County (L. A. County has 10.2 million people) are working for cash and not paying taxes. This is because they are predominantly illegal immigrants working without a green card.
2. 95% of warrants for murder in Los Angeles Are for illegal aliens.
3. 75% of people on the Most wanted list in Los Angeles are illegal aliens.
4. Over 2/3 of all births in Los Angeles County are to illegal alien Mexicans on Medi-Cal , whose births were paid for by taxpayers.
5. Nearly 35% of all inmates in California detention centers are Mexican nationals here illegally
6. Over 300,000 illegal aliens in Los Angeles County are living in garages.
7. The FBI reports half of all gang members in Los Angeles are most likely illegal aliens from south of the border.
8. Nearly 60% Of all occupants of HUD properties are illegal.
9. 21 radio stations in L. A. are Spanish speaking.
10. In L. A. County 5.1 million people speak English, 3.9 million speak Spanish.
(There are 10.2 million people in L. A. County. )

(All 10 of the above are from the Los Angeles Times)

Less than 2% of illegal aliens are picking our crops, but 29% are on welfare. Over 70% of the U United States' annual population growth (and over 90% of California, Florida , and New York) results from immigration. 29% of inmates in federal prisons are illegal aliens.

We are a bunch of fools for letting this continue

HOW CAN YOU HELP?

Send copies of this post to at least two other people. 100 would be even better.

This is only one State...............

If this doesn't open your eyes nothing will!

And you wonder why Nancy Pelosi wants them to become voters!

Dogbert on bailout hearings.

2009-03-02T21:41:00.002+02:00

Isthisthebottom.com

2009-02-26T20:47:00.000+02:00

Is this the bottom? When you really need to know if we're at the market bottom, but can't wait for a TV chatterer to ask a random, long-only, money-losing fund manager the question for you, click here.

The Short and Simple Story of the Credit Crisis

2009-02-22T10:54:00.002+02:00

From the author:" The goal of giving form to a complex situation like the credit crisis is to quickly supply the essence of the situation to those unfamiliar and uninitiated. This project was completed as part of my thesis work in the Media Design Program, a graduate studio at the Art Center College of Design in Pasadena, California. For more on my broader thesis work exploring the use of new media to make sense of a increasingly complex world, visit my website here. "

The Crisis of Credit Visualized from Jonathan Jarvis on Vimeo.

Letterman on the stimulus package.

2009-02-21T16:08:00.000+02:00

During the monologue on The Late Show with David Letterman, Dave explains the recent Economic Stimulus Package.

Credit crisis, the musical:

2009-02-07T21:23:00.000+02:00

Stock charts and more, as interpreted by Microsoft's Songsmith.

Windfall Tax on Retirement Income

2009-02-03T11:05:00.002+02:00

Look in her eyes and tell me she's not off her fricken rocker!!! Now she wants to do what?

Windfall Tax on Retirement Income

Adding a tax to your retirement is simply another way of saying to the American people, you're so darn stupid that we're going to keep doing this until we drain every cent from you. That's what the Speaker of the House is saying. Read below................

Nancy Pelosi wants a Windfall Tax on Retirement Income. In other words tax what you have made by investing toward your retirement. This woman is a nut case! You aren't going to believe this.

Madam speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to put a Windfall Ta x on all stock market profits (including Retirement fund, 401K and Mutual Funds! Alas , it is true - all to help the 12 Million Illegal Immigrants and other unemployed Minorities!

This woman is frightening.
She quotes...' We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income, (didn't Marx say something like this), in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest.' ( I am not rich, are you)

When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied:
'We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long way to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as 'Americans'.' [Read that qu ote again and again and let it sink in. 'Lower your retirement, give it to others who have not worked as you have for it'. ]

This lady is out of her mind and she is the speaker of the house!

Ron Paul 2 Videos

2009-01-28T21:39:00.004+02:00

Ron Paul with Glenn Beck:
We've been listening to Glenn Beck on the radio quite a bit during all the driving we've done in the last five days - here he is with Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas).

Ron Paul Talks About the Economy on Morning Joe 1-27-09 On MSNBC's Morning Joe, Ron Paul answers questions about fixing the economy.

Excellent performance vs 5 idiots.

Financial Times: Winter bites in EU but with some bright spots

2009-01-27T14:59:00.002+02:00

“Wintry conditions are gripping Europe’s economies as the biting winds caused by financial market storms lead to deep and protracted recessions, but regional variations are still distinguishable.

“The latest Financial Times economic weather map for Europe shows a further substantial deterioration since it was last published in October, when the devastating impact on the global economy of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the investment bank, was only just becoming apparent.

“European industrial production collapsed in November, data this month have shown, and business confidence surveys suggest the bottom of the recession - set to be among the worst since the second world war - has not yet been reached.”

Source: Ralph Atkins and Ben Hall, Financial Times, January 20, 2009.

I Want My Bailout Mone

2009-01-25T13:15:00.003+02:00

I Want My Bailout Money by Michael Adams the Health Ranger:

Banks Tank: Worst Decline in History

2009-01-23T22:15:00.001+02:00

The wreck that was the banking sector this week actually made history.

According to Jeff Rubin of Birinyi Associates, bank stocks have fallen further and faster than at any time in history, including the Great Depression.

Rubin said on Tuesday, the day of their big sell off, bank stocks were down 78.51 percent from their February, 2007 high. At a parallel point in the 1930s (two years from their high), bank stocks were down 78.09 percent.

It's not a huge difference but ultimately, bank stocks lost a total 89 percent in the Depression era. It took them another nine months from the two-year mark to get there.

"I think the real point here is everyone is looking for a quick rebound in the financials. If you're looking for any guidance, the only guidance we have is the Great Depression. We went 20 years without a rebound. It was sideways until the 1950s, at least for the banks," he said.

Financials are now at an 18-year low in terms of weighting in the S&P 500. They are at 9.99 percent. Tech was in first place, with 16.1 percent and health care was a close second at 15.83.

Earnings news blew up what could have been a second up day for stocks, and it was Microsoft's surpise release of a worse than expected quarter that really sent stocks spinning.

Financials though continue to lead the decline, down about 6 percnet today, while tech is down 3.2 percent. Some of the worst performers are Huntington Bancshares, Fifth Third, Aflac, Citigroup, SLM and Bank of America..

Rubin shared this chart with us.

Source: Birinyi Associates, INC.

Source:
Tanking Banks Make History
Tanking Banks Make History - Market Insider with Patti Domm
Posted By: Patti Domm
CNBC.com, Jan.22 2:14 PM ET
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28796525

Is the Market Bottom in Sight (Again?)

2009-01-21T14:10:00.004+02:00

Interesting take over the weekend in Marketwatch on stock market bottoms relative to historic trendlines.In past bear markets, whenever equities as a group fall into the range of 40-42% below trend, at bottom was not far off.

HFN editor Peter Brimelow, along with ESR Research’s Edwin S. Rubenstein observe:

“We have looked at stocks relative to this long-term trend line. When we last looked, we found stocks were down 38% below trend, around the levels seen at historic bear market bottoms in 1981 (40% below trend), 1974 (41% below trend) and 1932 (42% below trend).”

The concept was developed via Jeremy Siegel’s Stocks for the Long Run. (Note: Siegel does not necessarily agree with their conclusions).

Brimelow and Rubenstein show the historic relationship between the two via this chart:

The >

Source:
Stocks’ bottom in sight. Again.
They can’t go much lower before reaching unsustainable depths
Peter Brimelow & Edwin S. Rubenstein
Marketwatch, 9:28 p.m. EST Jan. 18, 2009
http://tinyurl.com/stockbottomtrendreversion

The Few, The Proud, The Groups Up Since Election Day

2009-01-20T23:37:00.002+02:00

The equity market's decline since Election Day has been the worst ever lame duck period (election to inauguration) for stocks since at least 1900. With today's declines, the S&P 500 has lost 19.8% of its value since the November 4th election. Below we highlight the best and worst performing groups over that same time period. Unfortunately, only 2 out of 65 groups (representing only 5 of the stocks in the S&P 500) are positive since the election.

On the downside, 24 out of 65 groups (38%) are underperforming the overall index since the election. As shown, the woes in the Financials have been extreme, as the five worst performing groups are all from that sector. Will those hoping for a reprieve from the credit crisis under a new adminstration have to wait another four or eight years? Let's hope not.

Source:
Worse Than Deja Vu
By Bespoke Investment Group
January 20, 2009 at 03:42 PM
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/the-few-the-proud-groups-up-since-election-day.html

Warren Buffett on Dateline NBC

2009-01-19T21:29:00.005+02:00

Warren Buffett was interviewed by Tom Brokaw on Dateline NBC...

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

January 18, 2009

Hat tip distressed volatility

Gaza Confliict

2009-01-19T16:06:00.004+02:00

The WSJ has a nice interactive map showing the details of the Israeli/Hamas battle:

click for interactive graphic:

via WSJ

PERMALINK

Did Speculation Fuel Oil Price Swings?

2009-01-19T11:02:00.002+02:00

60 Minutes: Speculation Affected Oil Price Swings More Than Supply And Demand

The Price Of Oil

The historic swings in oil prices last year were the result of financial speculation from Wall Street and not supply and demand. Steve Kroft investigates.

Bird and Fortune: Silly Money

2009-01-18T09:41:00.003+02:00

This is a followup to the subprime piece from a year ago ...

(Part 1: 8 min 42 sec)

(Part 2: 8 min 42 sec)

~~~

Hat tip Calculated Risk

Worse Than Deja Vu

2009-01-16T21:13:00.002+02:00

As if the start to last year wasn't bad enough, this year the S&P 500 is performing even more poorly. With a 6.7% decline after nine trading days, the S&P 500 is off to the worst start in its history. At this point last year, the S&P 500 was only down 3.55%. We've already almost doubled that!

Source:
Worse Than Deja Vu
By Bespoke Investment Group
January 12th, 2009, 12:13PM
http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/01/worse-than-deja-vu.html

The Three Trillion Dollar War

2009-01-13T11:19:00.003+02:00

Excellent infographic depicting the enormous costs of the Iraq war.It explains in 10 steps why Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s 2003 estimates of the war in Iraq’s costs at $60 billion were so wildly off by 10 times that figure.

click for really ginormous graphic

By the time the United States leaves Iraq, the estimated total cost of war will be more than $3 trillion.

Source:
The Three Trillion Dollar War
By Barry Ritholtz
January 12th, 2009, 12:13PM
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/01/the-three-trillion-dollar-war/

Scenes from the Gaza Strip - The Big Picture - Boston.com

2009-01-09T19:18:00.002+02:00

Scenes from the Gaza Strip - The Big Picture - Boston.com

Posted using ShareThis

Morningstar's 2008 CEO of the Year

2009-01-08T10:28:00.001+02:00

Morningstar: Warren Buffett Hasn't Lost His Touch, He's CEO of the Year and Why investing legend Warren Buffett earned the nod for 2008's award.

The Morningstar Fund Managers of the Year for 2008

2009-01-07T11:24:00.004+02:00

These managers have served shareholders well over the long term, including damage control in a brutal 2008.

The Five Worst Days of 2008

2009-01-02T20:00:00.003+02:00

You know it’s been a bad year when you’re arguing about what the five worst days were. Between the massive market fluctuations and the biggest banks going belly up, it’s hard to know where to start. From a crowded field of contenders, here are The Big Money’s five biggest buzz-killers.

Source:
The Five Worst Days of 2008: Relive the disaster.
By Win Rosenfeld
Big Money, December 30, 2008 - 5:47pm
http://www.thebigmoney.com/articles/video/2008/12/30/five-worst-days-2008.

A Christmas Card From The Stock Market

2008-12-24T13:25:00.003+02:00

Hopefully the market doesn't send us all this holiday card again in 2009:

Quoth the Trader, “Nevermore.”

2008-12-23T16:54:00.000+02:00

Late one morning one December
in a year we’ll all remember,
Writing Christmas poems
had turned into quite a chore,

While I nodded, nearly napping,
suddenly there came a tapping,
As of someone gently rapping,
rapping at my office door.

“Tis some visitor,” I muttered,
“tapping at my office door-
Only this, and nothing more.”

Open wide I flung the entry,
stood there like an ancient sentry,
In there stepped a haggard trader
who’d been up since half past four.

Not the least obeisance made he;
not a minute stopped or stayed he;
But, with mien of lord or lady,
walked in from the trading floor-

Stood next to a bust of Soros
on a shelf well past the door-
Stood, and sighed,
and nothing more.

Then this battered soul beguiling
my sad fancy into smiling,
By the grave and stern decorum
of the countenance he wore,

“Though thy P/L has cratered,
you’ll get better soon or later,
Ghastly grim and somber trader
wandering from the trading floor-

Tell me what thy problem is
found upon the trading floor!”